University of Sussex
Browse

File(s) under permanent embargo

Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st Century

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 13:41 authored by Henrique M Pereira, Paul W Leadley, Vânia Proença, Rob Alkemade, Jörn P W Scharlemann, Juan F Fernandez-Manjarres, Miguel B Araujo, Patricia Balvanera, Reinette Biggs, William W L Cheung, Louise Chini, H David Cooper, Eric L Gilman, Sylvie Guenette, George C Hurtt, Henry P Huntington, Georgina M Mace, Thierry Oberdorff, Carmen Revenga, Patrícia Rodrigues, Robert J Scholes, Ussif Rashid Sumaila, Matt Walpole
Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Science

ISSN

0036-8075

Issue

6010

Volume

330

Page range

1496-1501

Department affiliated with

  • Evolution, Behaviour and Environment Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2012-11-15

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2012-11-15

Usage metrics

    University of Sussex (Publications)

    Categories

    No categories selected

    Exports

    RefWorks
    BibTeX
    Ref. manager
    Endnote
    DataCite
    NLM
    DC