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Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st Century
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 13:41 authored by Henrique M Pereira, Paul W Leadley, Vânia Proença, Rob Alkemade, Jörn P W Scharlemann, Juan F Fernandez-Manjarres, Miguel B Araujo, Patricia Balvanera, Reinette Biggs, William W L Cheung, Louise Chini, H David Cooper, Eric L Gilman, Sylvie Guenette, George C Hurtt, Henry P Huntington, Georgina M Mace, Thierry Oberdorff, Carmen Revenga, Patrícia Rodrigues, Robert J Scholes, Ussif Rashid Sumaila, Matt WalpoleQuantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections
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Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Published version
Journal
ScienceISSN
0036-8075External DOI
Issue
6010Volume
330Page range
1496-1501Department affiliated with
- Evolution, Behaviour and Environment Publications
Full text available
- No
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2012-11-15First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2012-11-15Usage metrics
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