Evaluating_IMF_Intervention_Ten_Years_after_the_Russian_Crisis-__.pdf (2.5 MB)
Evaluating IMF intervention ten years after the Russian crisis: modelling the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals and economic policy
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 15:13 authored by Malgorzata SulimierskaThe ongoing global financial crisis has become prominently visible since September 2008. This crisis affected the whole world and enhanced the importance of policy implementation to mitigate financial crises in future. Many academics blamed insufficient domestic regulation as the reason of crises, others pointed to the lack of overseas financial regulation and inappropriate actions by international organizations, such as the IMF and World Bank. This whole discussion encouraged a look back and analyzes of a previous crisis in a small country such as Russia. This paper evidently shows the inefficiency of IMF policy during the Russia Crisis in 1998 by implementing a new monetary balance- of-payment model in Russian data. This model identified the role of macroeconomic fundamentals and international economic policy implications on the likelihood and the timing of the currency crisis in Russia. For the period from December 1995 to December 1998 it was found that, the increase in domestic credit growth gradually undermined confidence in the fixed exchange rate regime. The most dangerous point was at the end of 1998, when the collapse probability was above 90 percent. This result called to doubt the IMF’s July packet 1998 and revealed the political aspects of this financial help.
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- Published
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- Published version
Journal
International Journal of Business Insights and TransformationISSN
0974-5874Publisher
I T M Business SchoolIssue
1Volume
6Department affiliated with
- Business and Management Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2013-06-14First Open Access (FOA) Date
2013-12-01First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2013-06-13Usage metrics
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