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Quantitative analysis of technology futures: a review of techniques, uses and characteristics
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 23:40 authored by Tommaso CiarliTommaso Ciarli, Alex Coad, Ismael RafolsA variety of quantitative techniques have been used in the past in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA). In recent years, increased computational power and data availability have led to the emergence of new techniques that are potentially useful for foresight and forecasting. As a result, there are now many techniques that might be used in FTA exercises. This paper reviews and qualifies quantitative methods for FTA in order to help users to make choices among alternative techniques, including new techniques that have not yet been integrated into the FTA literature and practice. We first provide a working definition of FTA and discuss its role, uses, and popularity over recent decades. Second, we select the most important quantitative FTA techniques, discuss their main contexts and uses, and classify them into groups with common characteristics, positioning them along key dimensions: descriptive/prescriptive, extrapolative/normative, data gathering/inference, and forecasting/foresight.
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Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Published version
Journal
Science and Public PolicyISSN
0302-3427Publisher
Oxford University PressExternal DOI
Issue
5Volume
43Page range
630-645Department affiliated with
- SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit Publications
Full text available
- No
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2015-12-07First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2015-12-06Usage metrics
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