A key issue for decentralised markets like FX is how the market responds to extreme situations. Using data on FX transactions with a precise identification of Algorithmic trading (AT), we find that AT, broadly defined, appears to have contributed to the deterioration of market quality following the removal of the cap on the Swiss franc on 15 January 2015 by withdrawing liquidity and generating uninformative volatility. We also find that the Swiss National Bank, after initially stepping aside, played an important role, though more by signalling rather than trading. This perhaps explains why human trading – that could most easily interpret those signals – was important in stabilising the market.

In the years since the subprime financial crisis of 2007–2011, we have learned a number of important lessons about the crisis, and have subsequently applied appropriate legislation, such as increased capital ratios and systematic stress testing, in order to combat it. However, it would be naive to suggest that such measures have put an end to the possibility of future crises. In this book, senior figures in economics, risk Management, and the banking sector use active research and policy debates to offer a wide perspective on what the next financial crisis may look like and what can be done about it from a regulatory point of view. By first exploring issues of macroeconomic policy, and then studying cutting-edge methodologies, challenging important aspects of testing financial practice, this book will be an essential read for all those studying and researching financial crises, financial regulation and macroprudential policy-making.

BitMEX is the largest unregulated bitcoin derivatives exchange, listing contracts suitable for leverage trading and hedging. Using minute-by-minute data, we examine its price discovery and hedging effectiveness. We find that BitMEX derivatives lead prices on major bitcoin spot exchanges. Bid-ask spreads, inter-exchange spreads and relative trading volumes are important determinants of price discovery. Further analysis shows that BitMEX derivatives have positive net spillover effects, are informationally more efficient than bitcoin spot prices, and serve as effective hedges against spot price volatility. Our evidence suggests that regulators prioritise investigation of the legitimacy of BitMEX and its contracts.

This special issue is focusing on Emerging and Developing Economies (EDE). Our papers have been written in the context of the second “wave of liquidity” in the post‐GFC global economy, that is, a period of massive expansion in corporate debt. We present new evidence on debt dynamics in EDE with regard to a number of key areas, such as debt maturities, currency mismatches, and LCBM. We assess what this new evidence tells us about the way in which EDE are integrated and exposed to current global debt dynamics. We also examine how these dynamics speak to broader key themes in the debt literature, such as the impact of debt on economic growth and development.

Paul De Grauwe’s Eurozone fragility hypothesis states that sovereign debt markets in a monetary union without a lender-of-last-resort are vulnerable to a self-fulfilling dynamics fuelled by pessimistic investor sentiment that can trigger default. We test this contention by applying an eclectic methodology to a two-year window around Mario Draghi’s “whatever-it-takes” pledge that can be understood as the implicit announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program. A principal components analysis reveals that the perceived commonality in default risk among peripheral and core Eurozone sovereigns increased after the announcement. An event study reveals significant pre-announcement news transmission from Spain to Italy, France, Belgium and Austria that clearly dissipates post-announcement. Country-specific regressions of CDS spreads on systematic risk factors reveal frequent days of large adverse shocks affecting simultaneously those five Eurozone countries during the pre-announcement period. Altogether these findings support the fragility hypothesis and endorse the OMT program.

Staff working paper no. 711:

A key issue raised by the rapid growth of computerised algorithmic trading is how it responds in extreme situations. Using data on foreign exchange orders and transactions that includes identification of algorithmic trading, we find that this type of trading contributed to the deterioration of market quality following the removal of the cap on the Swiss franc on 15 January 2015, which was an event that came as a complete surprise to market participants. In particular, we find that algorithmic traders withdrew liquidity and generated uninformative volatility in Swiss franc currency pairs, while human traders did the opposite. However, we find no evidence that algorithmic trading propagated these adverse effects on market quality to other currency pairs.

This introduction analyses the nature and characteristics of global debt dynamics in the post global financial crisis (GFC) period. First, we attempt to map the ways in which debt has been moving from sector to sector, and from one group of countries to another within the global economy. By capturing this inter-sectorial, inter-national, inter-regional movements of global debt we aspire to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of global debt and its mode of operation. Second, we attempt to analyse what is wrong with global debt dynamics, i.e. we examine the broken link between what global debt was supposed to do and what it does. Here, we point to three interrelated dynamics: the accumulation of unproductive debt, growing inequalities of income and wealth, and the increase in privately-created, interest-bearing money. We conclude by discussing how each paper in this special issue contributes to the current state of the art on the analysis of global debt dynamics in emerging and developing economies.

This paper analyses the nature and characteristics of global debt dynamics in the post global financial crisis (GFC) period. First, we attempt to map the ways in which debt has been moving from sector to sector, and from one group of countries to another within the global economy. By capturing this inter-sectorial, inter-national, inter-regional movements of global debt we aspire to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of global debt and its mode of operation. Second, we attempt to analyse what is wrong with global debt dynamics, i.e. we examine the broken link between what global debt was supposed to do and what it does. Here, we point to three interrelated dynamics: the accumulation of unproductive debt, growing inequalities of income and wealth, and the increase in privately-created, interest-bearing money.

In this paper, ‘Events study analysis’ is used to analyse the impact of Vickers’ Ring-fencing regulation, Quantitative Easing programme and the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union (‘Brexit’) on the UK banking system. Ten banks have been included in the study and the stock price data for each of them was collected from the 14th January 2011 to the 30th of July 2016. We find that banks affected by Vickers’ regulation did have negative abnormal returns as the policy progressed, indicating that the policy may not be the best way to limit risk in banks. The results also show that Quantitative Easing does affect the banks’ abnormal returns positively and that ‘bigger’ banks benefit more from its implementation. Finally, we discover that the ‘Brexit’ vote did cause negative abnormal returns across all banks, however, it was the smaller ‘unaffected’ banks which suffered the most.

In this thesis, we study the behaviour and forecastability of exchange rates . Most of the existing literature on the forecasting of exchange rates concentrates on the end of the day price, commonly known as the 'close' price. Meese and Rogoff [30] show that this price tends to follow the naive random walk model, which implies that the best forecast for the next period is the current observed value. Instead, we study the dynamics and the predictability of the daily high and low prices using real-world data for the currency pairs GBP/USD, EUR/USD and AUD/USD. The daily high and low are the maximum and minimum prices reached for each 24-hour period by the currency pairs. We find strong evidence that the daily close prices lag these highs and lows. We use this knowledge to build an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) rolling regression model that produces one day ahead out-of-sample forecasts of these high and low prices. We also build an algorithm that uses already existing dynamic regression methods to correct for the autocorrelation often observed in time-series data. The window size used for the estimation of our model parameters is very important due to the nature of time series data. We propose an empirical method to find the best suitable window size for the estimation of these parameters. The out-of-sample predictability of our regression models is compared to a few benchmark models by using a number of different performance measures. We show that our models outperform these benchmark models in terms of their forecasting ability of high and low prices. Furthermore, a triggering method is developed for trading exchange rates using a saturation-reset linear feedback controller.
First, we test our triggering method on an idealized market model, for which we propose a stochastic process. We then apply this triggering method to real-world data in order to study its performance. Finally, we construct trading strategies that combine these methods with our out-of-sample forecasts.

The vulnerability/resilience nexus that defined the interaction between advanced and developing economies in the post-WWII era is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Yet, most of the debate in the current literature is focusing on the structural constraints faced by the Emerging and Developing Countries (EDCs) and the lack of changes in the formal structures of global economic governance. This paper challenges this literature and its conclusions by focusing on the new conditions of systemic interlocking between advanced and emerging economies, and by analysing how large EDCs have built and are strengthening their economic resilience. We find that a significant redistribution of ‘policy space’ between advanced and emerging economies have taken place in the global economy. We also find that a number of seemingly technical currency swap agreements among EDCs have set in motion changes in the very structure of global trade and finance. These developments do not signify the end of EDCs’ vulnerability towards advanced economies. They signify however that the economic and geoeconomic implications of this vulnerability have changed in ways that constrain the options available to advanced economies and pose new challenges for the post-WWII economic order.

The recent growth of exchanges has generated large trading platforms for investors. The largest of these institutions, the Intercontinental Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange group are now responsible for clearing trades for the majority of investors worldwide and are perhaps, as large commercial banks are, too big to fail. This has attracted attention from international regulating bodies to impose strict risk management standards on the exchanges to ensure financial stability. In this thesis, we identify first, that an investor in the market is strongly affected by margins set by the exchanges in determining the transaction costs of a trade. We discuss the possibility that a volatile margin movement would introduce further risks for such an investor causing them to raise more capital to cover possible margin calls which can perhaps lead to procyclicality. We follow this work by addressing how margins can be determined in adherence to the new laws. Exchanges are now required to set margins based on the Value-at-Risk, hence we search for the best Value-at-Risk method for margining use. Here, we find that the simple Orthogonal Exponentially Weighted Moving Average method is sufficient in forecasting the Value-at-Risk, which contradicts a fair body of the literature who suggests that complex developments of GARCH are superior. We then offer methods for setting and evaluating margin requirements upon the Value-at-Risk estimates, concentrating on producing stable margin requirements. The automated methods produced in our work outperform all other methods available in the literature. Furthermore, we are the first to provide methods for assessing margin stability. Our work is timely in addressing the current affairs of the world economy and is among the first to tackle the margin stability issue in detail.

We examine monthly excess returns for 23 Euro-denominated corporate bond indices and propose a new specification for bond asset pricing models. Specifically, we separate level and slope components of term and default risk factors and examine liquidity risk. Our results suggest that level and slope risk factors, derived from complete interest rate and default spread term structures, significantly improve the explanatory power of the Fama and French (1993) 2-factor model. We also demonstrate different sensitivities of risk factors before and after recent financial crisis. The results are robust to calendar seasonality and the consideration of equity market returns. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

This study examines the tracking performance of 31 eurozone sovereign debt exchange traded index funds (ETFs) during 2007-2010. The tracking performance is assessed by four different tracking error models. Overall, funds underperform their respective benchmarks. Active returns (net of fees) vary substantially (from +46.74 to -30.36 basis points) and are of considerable economic interest. The significant differences in the performance of swap-based and in-kind funds highlight the importance of appropriate (e.g. correlation vs. cointegration based) metrics required for the assessment of funds adopting different replication methods. We also document important changes in the tracking performance due to the changing characteristics of EU sovereign bonds since the start of the sovereign debt crisis.

There is growing policy interest in the role of financial structure in promoting development. However, very little is known about how different financial structures emerge and evolve. In this paper we empirically assess the political origins of financial structure. Using difference-in difference estimation and annual data, we study the effects of democratization on financial structure in a sample of 96 countries covering the period 1970 to 2005. Democratization here corresponds to the event of becoming a democracy. We find that democratization leads to a more market-based financial system. Democratic change could also be incremental rather than a one off. To identify the effect of incremental democratic change on financial structure we estimate a separate model and find that democracy matters. We also find that countries with substantial democratic capital are more likely to have a market-based financial structure. Our main results are robust to a variety of controls, Arellano-Bond GMM estimation, alternative measures of democracy and financial structure, and across different samples.

The 2007–08 financial crisis exposed and exacerbated the debt pathologies of the West. This paper examines whether the new global debt relations that have been generated by this crisis have transformed global power politics, changing the way in which the global South and the global North interrelate and interact. To do so the paper analyses the G20 advanced and emerging economies, examining a number of key indicators related to debt, indebtedness and financial leverage. This research leads to two main findings. First, the crisis has indeed given rise to new global debt relations. As a result, any reforms in the post-crisis global political economy will take place in an environment that favours the rising powers. Second, the USA maintains its capacity to control the parameters of this new global debt politics and economics, but cannot directly impose the terms of a solution to the existing ‘global/hegemonic imbalances’ on the rising powers.

This article deals with the analysis of the mean reversion property of short-term interest rates in Central and Eastern European countries, using daily data from January 2000 to December 2008. For this purpose, we use long memory (fractionally integrated) models, and employ non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric techniques to check if our results are robust across different methods. The results indicate that the mean reversion only takes place in the case of Hungary. For the remaining countries, the short-term interest rates are clearly non-stationary and non-mean reverting. Allowing for one break in the data, the break date takes place about 2001/2003 in all the series except in Lithuania, where the break occurs in 2007. In general, we observe an increase in the degree of dependence after the break in the majority of the series.

Barisitz, S., Banking in central and eastern Europe 1980-2006: from communism to capitalism. Abingdon: Routledge, 2007. ISBN: 9780415428811.

This paper uses fractional integration models to describe the long-run dependence of nominal exchange rates in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). The analysis is validated using nonparametric, semiparametric and parametric techniques. From comparing the results across the three approaches, it was clear that mean reversion takes places only for the euro exchange rates in Bulgaria, Estonia, and Slovenia. Other exchange rates based on the euro also display mean reversion with the parametric methods. For the US dollar rates, the unit-root null hypothesis cannot be rejected in any single country, indicating that shocks affecting the exchange rates against the US dollar are of a permanent nature, while those directed against the euro are less persistent, and tend sometimes to disappear in the long run. Policy implications are derived.

The book explains the framework of the money, liquidity and monetary policy in the USA, the Eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Even if the book is based on contemporary banking practice, it arises from careful examination of the historical development of opinions on money, liquidity and monetary policy. The authors claim that money and liquidity (and the financial system as a whole) are demonstrated best through financial statements (balance sheet and income statement) which are based on accounting. Thus any operation is clarified through double-entry record. Furthermore, the fundamentals of the payment systems are outlined.

This is a comprehensive and lucid survey of the economic challenges which transition economies have undergone in the last twenty years. It gives a deep insight into the banking sector and financial markets of Central and Eastern European countries, examining their integration into the European Union and the key obstacles which prevent full integration. With contributions from both academics and practitioners, the book comments on and evaluates market changes and monetary policy in the region. It applies rigorous and advanced tools to analyse the ongoing development and remaining problems, including the impact and consequences of the current financial crisis.

This edited collection assesses the level of financial integration in the European Union (EU) and the differences across the countries and segments of the EU financial system. Progress in financial integration is key to the EU’s economic growth and competitiveness and although it has advanced substantially, the process is still far from completion. This book focuses on the pace of financial integration in the EU with special emphasis on the new EU Member States and investigates their progress in comparison with ‘old’ EU countries.

The book is the first of its kind to include and evaluate the effects of the global financial crisis on the process of EU financial integration. In particular, the book’s contributors address the issue of whether a high degree of financial integration contributed to the intensification of the financial crisis, or whether a low level of integration prevented countries and financial industries from some of the negative effects of the crisis. Although most of the chapters apply contemporary econometric tools, the technical part is always reduced to indispensable minimum and the emphasis is given to economic interpretation of the results. The book aims to offer an up to date and insightful examination of the process of financial integration in the EU today.

We study how the countries in which foreign segments are located affect the value of globally-diversified firms. We use the Heritage Foundation/Wall Street Journal Index of Economic Freedom and the World Bank's Financial Development and Structure database to characterize the locations of the foreign segments. We find that U.S. globally-diversified firms with foreign segments in countries with more entrepreneurs (i.e., Business Freedom) and a better investment environment (i.e., Investment Freedom) are associated with higher excess values. Our findings suggest that globally-diversified firms can add value by carefully selecting locations for their foreign segments in countries that rate highly on key indices of economic freedom. Our analysis of the World Bank's Financial Development and Structure factors shows that investors do not value highly U.S. globally-diversified firms with foreign segments in overseas locations that share the same “financial” characteristics as their home country. We attribute that to a lack of heterogeneity between parent- and foreign segment-country characteristics, thus nullifying the diversification benefits for the parent company's shareholders.

This study examines the degree of price-integration of equity index assets between the major markets of Africa, namely Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Namibia and South Africa with the prominent European markets of London and Paris. The application of Vector Autoregressive and Autoregressive Distributed Lag methods reveals that African markets are largely price-segmented. The only markets that are price-integrated have shared economic and financial institutions such as Namibia and South Africa, and Egypt, Tunisia and France. The evidence suggests that development policy should be focussed on enhancing existing institutions rather than embarking prematurely on regional integration.

Empirical tests of theories of financial market integration and segmentation have predominantly focussed on developed OECD countries and the emerging markets of Asia Pacific. This paper uses a unique panel of equity market indices from the principal Southern African Customs Union (SACU) markets. The paper tests the hypothesis of market integration using a cointegration approach. Markets that are found to be integrated are then tested for evidence of Granger causality through an error correction mechanism. Results obtained using VAR modelling techniques are compared to those using an ARDL model. While results lend support to existing trade, macroeconomic and developmental linkages and effects between and within the countries, there is some evidence for the presence of a regional factor common to African Emerging Markets that explains causality from Namibia to South Africa. The results support the view that institution building has progressed, which is considered to be a valuable contribution to growth promotion policies in SSA and market integration throughout financial markets in the SADC community.

This study contrasts the effectiveness of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) against more recent augmented variants including size and book-to-market factors (Fama and French, 1993), liquidity (Liu, 2006) as well as both size and liquidity factors of Martinez et al (2005) in explaining average returns in industry portfolios across Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) excluding South Africa. This draws on a unique sample set of stocks from main board of Mauritius, local Namibian market, Botswana, Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire’s BRVM. The evidence suggests that both size and liquidity factors are important in explaining average returns which is supported by extending the analysis using time varying coefficient Kalman filter techniques that reveal liquidity effects in all SSA markets while substantial size effects are present in Namibia and Zambia.

This paper assesses the effectiveness of traded turnover and Amihud (2002) metrics in measuring illiquidity, as used in a multifactor CAPM. The performance of this model is contrasted with GARCH and simple stochastic drift models on a new sample of five West African equity markets: Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Morocco and Tunisia, together with developed markets in London and Paris. Analysis of portfolio characteristics reveals that investment strategies based on Francophone markets outperform those of Anglophone markets in Africa, despite their lower mean returns. There is some evidence of limited benefits to investors from including assets from the small and highly illiquid Cote d’Ivoire and Ghanaian markets.

This paper uses the illiquidity measure of Amihud (2002) in forming illiquidity estimates for South Africa, Kenya, Morocco, Egypt and London. These are used within an augmented CAPM framework to form risk firm illiquidity premiums in addition to premiums attributable to firm size. The evidence suggests that London and Johannesburg have the lowest cost of equity followed by Morocco and Egypt. While Kenya has the highest cost of equity the costs associated with a Main board listing are less than one third than those encountered on the fledgling Alternative Investment Market raising policy questions concerning the development of alternative markets.

Equity markets are increasingly seen as important sources of investment funds in many emerging economies, both in Africa and elsewhere. Furthermore, many countries perceive the development of such markets as a means to facilitate both foreign equity portfolio investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) through the acquisition of shareholdings in domestic companies, and thus supplement the low levels of funding from domestic savings. But many emerging stock markets exhibit substantial risk premia, which both push up the cost of equity for listed domestic firms and deter potential foreign investors. This paper estimates the cost of equity in four major African markets: South Africa, Kenya, Egypt and Morocco. These collectively represent the largest and most developed equity markets in Africa and also act as hub markets in their respective regions. London is also included as a link between the emerging and developed financial market. The Fama and French (1993) three-factor model Capital Asset Pricing Model is augmented to take account of company size and illiquidity factors that feature in African financial markets. Results show that the premia associated with size are more prevalent than with liquidity although both are highly significant in both valuation and cost of equity estimates. The evidence suggests that the lowest cost of equity is achieved between the large international market of London and the smaller but well regulated Moroccan market, while Egypt has a higher cost of equity. The small developing market of Kenya has the second highest cost of equity, although the costs associated with the main market are less than ten percent of that faced by companies in the fledgling Alternative Investment Market. South Africa has the highest cost of equity although this reflects a proliferation of smaller firms in this market.

African emerging equity market returns are characterized by volatile, but substantial returns, which are affected considerably by varying degrees of liquidity cost ranging from 0.15% in Morocco to 53.37% in Tunisia. Many of the markets are dominated by a smaller group of blue chip stocks and intra-market liquidity differences can be extreme with differences greater than 100% in South Africa between the market aggregate and the constituents of the prestigious JSE Top 40 index. Using firm-level bid-ask quoted prices for six African markets of Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Kenya, BRVM and South Africa as well as two European markets of London and Paris the evidence suggests that the percentage of zero daily returns price rigidity measure and the Liu (2006) trading speed constructs perform better at representing inter and intra-market liquidity effects than price-impact measures such as Amihud (2002)

This study estimates liquidity premiums using the recently developed Liu (2006) measure within a multifactor capital asset pricing model (CAPM) including size premiums and a time-varying parameter model for the North African emerging markets of Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. The evidence suggests that size and liquidity effects are least significant in Morocco which is reflected in its low cost of equity while that in Egypt and Tunisia is significantly higher. Time-varying profiles of liquidity betas provide evidence that Morocco and Egypt have been affected by the 2007/2008 global financial crisis while the Tunisian market is relatively unaffected.

This paper examines the impact on underpricing and firm market value arising from IPO firms implementing a range of governance attributes such as the separation of CEO and Chairman roles, the founder ceding CEO position, establishment of committees and board size. Furthermore I study the determinants of director retained ownership and the relation between this and underpricing. Using a comprehensive sample of 37 locally listed IPO firm’s from across West Africa I find evidence of a mixed impact from the adoption of universally recognised governance mechanisms. Higher levels of retained director ownership increase underpricing in contrast to that of founders.

This study investigates the impact of board governance features and the presence of foreign, indigenous high society executives and board diversity on levels of IPO underpricing in a unique sample of 62 Initial Primary Offerings (IPOs) from across Sub Saharan African (SSA), excluding South Africa. I find evidence that greater numbers of foreign executives increase underpricing while higher numbers of indigenous high society directors have an opposing effect. Increasing board ethnic and nationality diversity together with the establishment of nominally independent board monitoring and oversight committees are associated with higher underpricing implying that standard international governance best practice is inappropriate in a developing region dominated by narrow political economies underscored by underdeveloped formal institutions with minimal investor protection

This paper estimates the cost of equity in South Africa, Kenya, Egypt and Morocco as well as the UK. Active investor participation in emerging markets is contingent on solid regulation and corporate governance that provide transparency in information and equity prices. Costs of equity, taking account of firm size and illiquidity, enable comparison of transactions costs between markets. The evidence suggests a clear distinction between markets with different levels of regulation and corporate governance. The UK and South Africa have the lowest cost of equity followed by Egypt and Morocco and then Kenya, where the fledgling AIMS market has the highest value.

This paper examines the impact of board governance mechanisms, namely board size, independence ratio, opacity of earnings disclosure, and ratio of genuinely independent nonexecutive directors to total board size on director remuneration, executive tenure and likelihood of individual executive salary disclosure in a unique and comprehensive sample of 69 North African IPO firms. I find evidence of the enhanced governance role of true independent nonexecutives in family as opposed to non-family firms in improving disclosure of individual salaries and moderating lengths of executive tenure. However while their role is only significant in the context of family firms the evidence suggests that their presence is associated with higher levels of remuneration. The evidence also ascribes a greater role for business angel as opposed to more formal private equity financing which is more applicable within the highly social networked economy of the Maghreb region.

Equity markets in developing and emerging economies have grown in number and importance as a result of financial market globalisation. However, their role in economic growth and development is enhanced if nascent markets are integrated with well-established ones. Market integration, measured by the transmission of returns volatility, is identified across a sample of SSA countries, using a unique dataset. Evidence for potential integration between financial markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is found. Spillovers are found across markets, some unidirectional and others bi-directional. However, continued illiquidity and incomplete institutions indicate that an integrated financial community remains premature, and considerable regulatory reform and harmonisation will be necessary for this to succeed.

This paper contrasts the performance of three time series models, a simple stochastic drift,GARCH, and a time varying parameter CAPM for three of SADC’s smallest equity markets:
Namibia, Swaziland and Mozambique. Analysis of the portfolio characteristics for each reveals the level of integration with South Africa using optimised portfolio frontiers. In addition, the implications of adopting a minimum investment retention levy by the smaller states is examined. Namibia is found to exhibit the greatest degree of integration with South Africa, followed to a much lesser extent by Swaziland with Mozambique. The evidence suggests that investors in the smaller markets would face considerable additional costs should such a policy be adopted.

This study estimates liquidity premiums using the recently developed Liu measure within a
multifactor capital asset pricing model including size premiums and a time-varying parameter
model for the East African emerging markets of Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya together with London and South Africa. The evidence suggests that while size and liquidity effects are significant in the smaller emerging markets of Uganda and Kenya, they are less important in explaining returns in South Africa and London. Costs of equity are highest in Uganda followed by Kenya, with industrial and consumer non-cyclical sectors being lowest, and then South Africa and
London.

This paper examines the performance effects arising from initial primary offering (IPO) firms retaining their existing bank as a lead manager together with the effects of foreign and domestic lead managers, corporate insiders and private equity investors across West Africa. Using a unique and comprehensive sample of 37 locally listed IPO firm’s from acrossWest Africa, I find evidence of a considerable reduction in underpricing and costs of equity in firms listing on civil code as opposed to common law markets. Furthermore, I find evidence that firms employing their existing bank as lead manager have higher costs of equity while the employment of a foreign as opposed to domestic lead manager imparts a reduction in underpricing and cost of equity.

This paper assesses the impact of stock exchange funding in the Shari'ya compliant Islamic economy of Sudan. Evidence suggests that while Islamic financial instruments have considerable potential in facilitating development finance through their emphasis on partnership this is better achieved by the banking system rather than the Khartoum Stock Exchange. A case study of the Sudan Telecommunications company shows that larger firms able to cross-list elsewhere are likely to choose regional markets in preference to their domestic one thus benefiting from lower costs of equity. However, governance preferences are likely to favour block shareholders following the Islamic finance partnership concept.

This paper considers the impact of full Islamic shari’ya compliance on developing stock exchanges in their effective provision of development capital. Evidence from a unique study focussing on the Sudan telecommunications company and its listings on the Khartoum as well as Arabian Gulf stock exchanges reveals that costs of capital are considerably higher in the former than latter markets. While there are firm governance benefits arising from Islamic finance monitoring costs are substantial and the banking system is better placed to administer financing arrangements. Larger firms are better placed to circumvent this segmentation through cross-listing on regional exchanges.

The establishment of a successful stock market in a developing economy can provide a major source of development finance, both channelling domestic savings and attracting foreign investment. But small markets generally fail. Two micro-markets, Mozambique and Swaziland,
provide an interesting case study to examine the features of new markets in sub-Saharan Africa that differ in a number of ways, including colonial legacy, membership of the Common Monetary Area and the dynamics of the political economy that defines the links between the citizens, the local elite and the state. In both countries, the operational aspects of the stock exchange are clearly inadequate as a means of promoting international investment. Thus, gains from regional integration initiatives or foreign investment are unlikely, as the market’s small size and incomplete institutions currently offer limited potential for either domestic or international risk diversification. However, the political economy in both countries is the real barrier to growth.

The establishment of a successful stock market in a developing economy can be a major source of economic growth if it provides development finance by channelling domestic
savings and attracting foreign investment. However, this objective is not always met, particularly in very small markets where there are barriers to efficient market operations. A case study of Swaziland and Mozambique illustrates that any potential gains to the domestic investment community are limited if there is insufficient liquidity and the political economy is such that ownership is not truly dispersed but rather remains in the hands of social elites. This paper finds that potential growth of small developing markets is further severely constrained by poverty and wealth inequality and consequently the impact on development is minimal.

This paper contrasts the performance of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) augmented by size and liquidity factors with its time varying coefficient counterpart, using a unique market universe compiled from constituent stocks of blue chip indices BSE-100 (India), KSE-30 (Pakistan), DSE-20 (Bangladesh) and Dow Jones Titans (Sri Lanka). The evidence suggests that substantial size and liquidity effects are present in all markets with the exception of Sri Lanka. Time varying liquidity beta profiles reveal that the financial sectors of all South Asian markets have been affected by the 2008 financial crisis with exception of Sri Lanka where the market is influenced by the prolonged civil war

This paper assesses the effectiveness of traded turnover, Amihud (2002) and Liu (2006) metrics in measuring illiquidity, as used in a multifactor CAPM. The performance of this model is contrasted using a unique sample from Japan’s regional stock exchanges, namely Sapporo, Nagoya, Fukuoka, Osaka and Tokyo. The evidence suggests that size effects are important in Tokyo, liquidity plays a more important role in the conditional modelling of returns particularly in the smaller markets of Sapporo, Fukuoka and Nagoya where costs of equity are highest

Purpose – This paper aims to review the development of the Channel Islands exchange and assess
the potential diversification benefits arising from the inclusion of this market in investment portfolios
containing UK and French equity assets.
Design/methodology/approach – First this paper uses a simple stochastic drift, GARCH, and
time-varying parameter CAPM to model total returns indices. Second, it uses the unconditional and
conditional means and variances from first stage as inputs into a mean-variance portfolio quadratic
optimisation problem: the solutions of which denote the optimal asset weights.
Findings – The evidence suggests that although there are serious difficulties in modelling time series
from small illiquid equity markets owing to price-rigidity, the limited benefits that do exist for the
inclusion of Channel Islands assets in portfolios do so preferentially with Paris as opposed to London
assets.
Originality/value – This paper extends the literature development policy options for small offshore
markets and provides the first analysis of the Channel Islands.