University of Sussex
Browse

File(s) not publicly available

Landslide behaviour and climate change: predictable consequences for the Ventnor Undercliff, Isle of Wight

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-07, 17:22 authored by Roger Moore, J M Carey, R G McInnes
The Ventnor Undercliff, located on the south coast of the Isle of Wight, is an ancient landslide complex of marginal stability that is prone to ground movement and occasional landslide events. The impact of ground movement on property and services in the town has been significant in the past. Since 1995, the local authority has made a significant investment in continuous monitoring and analysis of weather and ground movement data at key sites amongst other landslide management initiatives. These data reveal strong relationships between antecedent rainfall, groundwater and ground movement rates, confirming that prolonged periods of heavy winter rainfall and excess groundwater levels are a fundamental control on landslide behaviour. Climate change projections over the next 100 years point to significant increases in sea level and winter rainfall which are expected to result in accelerated ground movement rates and more frequent landslide events in the Undercliff. There are concerns that hitherto marginally stable areas of the Undercliff may become unstable due to reactivation of ground movement and the occurrence of new landslides. In areas previously affected by ground movement or landslides, the frequency and rate of ground movement and landsliding is expected to increase. The paper presents historical and new data to demonstrate the relationships between rainfall and ground movement and uses these to predict the likely impacts of climate change on future landslide behaviour. The paper concludes that climate change poses a very real threat and significant challenge to the future management and mitigation of the ground instability risks in the Ventnor Undercliff, which may be echoed for other similarly marginally stable ancient landslides in the UK.

History

Publication status

  • Published

Journal

Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology

ISSN

1470-9236

Publisher

Geological Society

Issue

4

Volume

43

Page range

447-460

Department affiliated with

  • Geography Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2012-02-06

Usage metrics

    University of Sussex (Publications)

    Categories

    No categories selected

    Exports

    RefWorks
    BibTeX
    Ref. manager
    Endnote
    DataCite
    NLM
    DC