‘Natural because it had become just that.’ Path dependence in pre-electoral pacts and government formation: A New Zealand case study

Formal models of government formation frequently find their predictions confounded in the real world and/or fail to explain empirical observations, leading to calls for new approaches. The formation of New Zealand's 1999 minority coalition government—one which ran counter to the predictions of all conventional coalition theories—illustrates the potential contribution of path dependence to those approaches, particularly when we are trying to explain why pre-electoral pacts are relatively good predictors of government composition.