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Global oil depletion: a review of the evidence
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 08:52 authored by Steven SorrellSteven Sorrell, Jamie Speirs, Roger Bentley, Adam Brandt, Richard MillerWithin the polarised and contentious debate over future oil supply a growing number of commentators are forecasting a near term peak and subsequent decline in production. But although liquid fuels form the foundation of modern industrial economies, the growing debate on `peak oil has relatively little influence on energy and climate policy. With this in mind, the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) has conducted an independent, thorough and systematic review of the evidence, with the aim of establishing the current state of knowledge, identifying key uncertainties and improving consensus. The study focuses upon the physical depletion of conventional oil in the period to 2030 and includes an in-depth literature review, analysis of industry databases and a detailed comparison of global supply forecasts. This Communication summarises the main findings of the UKERC study. A key conclusion is that a peak of conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020.
History
Publication status
- Published
Journal
Energy PolicyISSN
0301-4215Publisher
ElsevierExternal DOI
Issue
9Volume
38Page range
5290-5295Pages
6.0Department affiliated with
- SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit Publications
Full text available
- No
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2012-02-06Usage metrics
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