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Modelling the initial spread of foot-and-mouth disease through animal movements
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 09:52 authored by D M Green, Istvan Kiss, R R KaoLivestock movements in Great Britain (GB) are well recorded and are a unique record of the network of connections among livestock-holding locations. These connections can be critical for disease spread, as in the 2001 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the UK. Here, the movement data are used to construct an individual-farm-based model of the initial spread of FMD in GB and determine the susceptibility of the GB livestock industry to future outbreaks under the current legislative requirements. Transmission through movements is modelled, with additional local spread unrelated to the known movements. Simulations show that movements can result in a large nationwide epidemic, but only if cattle are heavily involved, or the epidemic occurs in late summer or early autumn. Inclusion of random local spread can considerably increase epidemic size, but has only a small impact on the spatial extent of the disease. There is a geographical bias in the epidemic size reached, with larger epidemics originating in Scotland and the north of England than elsewhere.
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Publication status
- Published
Journal
Proceedings B: Biological SciencesISSN
1471-2954Publisher
Royal Society, TheExternal DOI
Issue
1602Volume
273Page range
2729 - 2735Department affiliated with
- Mathematics Publications
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- No
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2012-02-06Usage metrics
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