Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium

Tol, Richard S J and Wagner, Sebastian (2010) Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium. Climatic Change, 99 (1-2). pp. 65-79. ISSN 0165-0009

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We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder period, just like Zhang et al. (Clim Change 76:459-477, 2006) found for China. This relationship weakens in the industrialized era, and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. As the correlation is negative and weakening, it appears that global warming would not lead to an increase in violent conflict in temperature climates.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > Economics
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
J Political Science > JZ International relations > JZ6385 The armed conflict. War and order
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Depositing User: Richard Tol
Date Deposited: 23 Apr 2012 08:57
Last Modified: 30 Nov 2012 17:11
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