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Scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions from aviation

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 11:05 authored by Karen Mayor, Richard TolRichard Tol
We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to project tourist numbers and emissions from international tourism out to 2100. We find that between 2005 and 2100 international tourism grows substantially. Not only do people take more trips but these also increase in length. We find that the growth in tourism is mainly fuelled by an increase in trips from Asian countries. Emissions follow this growth pattern until the middle of the century when emissions start to fall due to improvements in fuel efficiency. Projected emissions are also presented for the four SRES scenarios and maintain the same growth pattern but the levels of emissions differ substantially. We find that the projections are sensitive to the period to which the model is calibrated, the assumed rate of improvement in fuel efficiency and the imposed climate policy scenario.

History

Publication status

  • Published

Journal

Global Environmental Change

ISSN

0959-3780

Publisher

Elsevier

Issue

1

Volume

20

Page range

65-73

Department affiliated with

  • Economics Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2012-04-18

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