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Estimates of the damage costs of climate change: Part 1: Benchmark estimates

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 11:09 authored by Richard TolRichard Tol
A selection of the potential impacts of climate change - on agriculture, forestry, unmanaged ecosystems, sea level rise, human mortality, energy consumption, and water resources - are estimated and valued in monetary terms. Estimates are derived from globally comprehensive, internally consistent studies using GCM based scenarios. An underestimate of the uncertainty is given. New impact studies can be included following the meta-analytical methods described here. A 1°C increase in the global mean surface air temperature would have, on balance, a positive effect on the OECD, China, and the Middle East, and a negative effect on other countries. Confidence intervals of regionally aggregated impacts, however, include both positive and negative impacts for all regions. Global estimates depend on the aggregation rule. Using a simple sum, world impact of a 1°C warming would be a positive 2% of GDP, with a standard deviation of 1%. Using globally averaged values, world impact would be a negative 3% (standard deviation: 1%). Using equity weighting, world impact would amount to 0% (standard deviation: 1%).

History

Publication status

  • Published

Journal

Environmental and Resource Economics

ISSN

0924-6460

Publisher

Springer Verlag

Issue

1

Volume

21

Page range

47-73

Department affiliated with

  • Economics Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2012-04-19

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