File(s) not publicly available
An assessment of the EU growth forecasts under asymmetric preferences
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 12:02 authored by George A Christodoulakis, Emmanuel C MamatzakisEU Commission forecasts are used as a benchmark within the framework of the Stability and Growth Pact, aimed at providing a prudential view of economic outlook, especially for member states in an Excessive Deficit Procedure. Following Elliott et al. (2005), we assess whether there exist asymmetries in the loss preference of the Commission's GDP growth forecasts from 1969 to 2004. Our empirical evidence is robust across information sets and reveals that the loss preferences tend to show some variation in terms of asymmetry across member states. Given certain conditions concerning the time horizon of forecasts and the functional form of the loss preferences, the evidence further reveals that the Commission forecasting exercise could be subject to caveats.
History
Publication status
- Published
Journal
Journal of ForecastingISSN
0277-6693Publisher
John Wiley & SonsExternal DOI
Issue
6Volume
27Page range
483-492Department affiliated with
- Business and Management Publications
Full text available
- No
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2012-07-03Usage metrics
Categories
No categories selectedKeywords
Licence
Exports
RefWorks
BibTeX
Ref. manager
Endnote
DataCite
NLM
DC