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A transitions model for sustainable mobility

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 20:43 authored by Jonathan Köehler, Lorraine Whitmarsh, Björn Nykvist, Michel Schilperoord, Noam BergmanNoam Bergman, Alex Haxeltine
This paper reports on the development of a model for assessing transitions to sustainable mobility. The model uses the concepts of transition theory as a framework for assessing possible pathways by which a transition to a sustainable mobility society might happen. The modelling approach combines agent-based modelling techniques with a system dynamics structure. It is original in that there are two levels of agent. There are a small number of complex agents, which have an internal structure and are therefore subsystems within society, and a larger number of simple agents. Based on the UK data, the results show that Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) come to dominate, but only in the very long run (after 2030), while biofuels and ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)-electric hybrids are the main alternatives to the regime in the next 10–30 years, because a) they are already developed and b) they fit better into current infrastructures. The model shows that technological transitions are most likely. Lifestyle change transitions require sustained pressure from the environment on society and behavioural change from consumers.

History

Publication status

  • Published

Journal

Ecological Economics

ISSN

0921-8009

Publisher

Elsevier

Issue

12

Volume

68

Page range

2985-2995

Department affiliated with

  • SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2015-05-11

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