Transition to upper secondary school in Mexico: new insights into selection and education expectations

The thesis investigates whether there are different patterns of 15 year-olds' selection that educational expectations, according to the different transition processes that exist in Mexico. To accomplish this objective three research questions guide the analysis. First, what are the underlying factors that affect the different transition processes to UPS level used in different States in Mexico? Second, what are the characteristics of 15 year-olds selected at UPS and how do they differ in States that use different transition processes? Third, how do 15 year-old students, educational expectations differ by the transition processes used where they live? To answer these questions I use essentially a quantitative study. I perform a political economy analysis of the transition to UPS in Mexico using a documentary review. I develop a characterisation of the different transition processes. Additionally, I investigate the relationship between the different transition processes and students' socioeconomic background, achievement and expectations. The analysis uses data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (2009) and marginalisation information from the National Council of Population (2010). The methods used are statistical descriptive analysis and regression analysis (quantile regression, ordered probit model and sensitivity analysis). The political economy analysis provides a characterisation of the transition process to upper secondary level based on the standardisation of admission procedures and the extensiveness in the use of entry examinations. The results of the political economy analysis of the transition process suggests that States with more structured education systems tend to have homogeneous transition processes, while in States with less structured education systems, schools and entry examination institutions tend to have a stringer influence on the transition process and ergo the procedures are heterogeneous. Homogeneous processes tend to promote a more balanced intake of students according to their social background, regardless of whether they use entry examinations or not. Also, the selection of UPS appears to be more efficient at processes that have the most extensive use of examination and homogeneous procedures. Therefore it is inferred that the standardisation of procedures could be positive for the effectiveness and efficiency of the selection at UPS as homogeneous procedures were found also to be associated with slightly higher educational expectations on students.