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Understanding China’s past and future energy demand: an exergy efficiency and decomposition analysis

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journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 22:47 authored by Paul E Brockway, Julia K Steinberger, John R Barrett, Tim FoxonTim Foxon
There are very few useful work and exergy analysis studies for China, and fewer still that consider how the results inform drivers of past and future energy consumption. This is surprising: China is the world’s largest energy consumer, whilst exergy analysis provides a robust thermodynamic framework for analysing the technical efficiency of energy use. In response, we develop three novel sub-analyses. First we perform a long-term whole economy time-series exergy analysis for China (1971–2010). We find a 10-fold growth in China’s useful work since 1971, which is supplied by a 4-fold increase in primary energy coupled to a 2.5-fold gain in aggregate exergy conversion efficiency to useful work: from 5% to 12.5%. Second, using index decomposition we expose the key driver of efficiency growth as not ‘technological leapfrogging’ but structural change: i.e. increasing reliance on thermodynamically efficient (but very energy intensive) heavy industrial activities. Third, we extend our useful work analysis to estimate China’s future primary energy demand, and find values for 2030 that are significantly above mainstream projections.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Applied Energy

ISSN

0306-2619

Publisher

Elsevier

Volume

155

Page range

892-903

Department affiliated with

  • SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2015-10-15

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2015-10-15

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2015-10-14

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