University of Sussex
Browse
Sorrell Stapleton Schwanen 2016.pdf (1.61 MB)

Estimating direct rebound effects for personal automotive travel in Great Britain

Download (1.61 MB)
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 00:07 authored by Lee Stapleton, Steven SorrellSteven Sorrell, Tim Schwanen
Direct rebound effects result from increased consumption of cheaper energy services. For example, more fuel-efficient cars encourage more car travel. This study is the first to quantify this effect for personal automotive travel in Great Britain. We use aggregate time series data on transport activity, fuel consumption and other relevant variables over the period 1970–2011 and estimate the direct rebound effect from the elasticity of both vehicle and passenger kilometres with respect to: a) vehicle fuel efficiency (km/MJ); b) the fuel cost of driving (£/km); and c) road fuel prices (£/MJ). We estimate a total of 108 models, paying careful attention to methodological issues and model diagnostics. Taking changes in fuel efficiency as the explanatory variable, we find little evidence of a long-run direct rebound effect in Great Britain over this period. However, taking changes in either the fuel cost of driving or fuel prices as the explanatory variable we estimate a direct rebound effect in the range 9% to 36% with a mean of ~ 19%. This estimate is consistent with the results of US studies and suggests that around one fifth of the potential fuel savings from improved car fuel efficiency may have been eroded through increased driving. We also show how the normalisation of distance travelled (per capita, per adult or per driver) affects the results obtained.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Energy Economics

ISSN

0140-9883

Publisher

Elsevier

Volume

54

Page range

313-325

Department affiliated with

  • SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2016-01-25

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2016-01-25

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2016-01-25

Usage metrics

    University of Sussex (Publications)

    Categories

    No categories selected

    Licence

    Exports

    RefWorks
    BibTeX
    Ref. manager
    Endnote
    DataCite
    NLM
    DC