Düring, Bertram, Jüngel, Ansgar and Trussardi, Lara (2017) A kinetic equation for economic value estimation with irrationality and herding. Kinetic and Related Models, 10 (1). pp. 239-261. ISSN 1937-5093

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Abstract

A kinetic inhomogeneous Boltzmann-type equation is proposed to model the dynamics of the number of agents in a large market depending on the estimated value of an asset and the rationality of the agents. The interaction rules take into account the interplay of the agents with sources of public information, herding phenomena, and irrationality of the individuals. In the formal grazing collision limit, a nonlinear nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation with anisotropic (or incomplete) diffusion is derived. The existence of global-in-time weak solutions to the Fokker-Planck initial-boundary-value problem is proved. Numerical experiments for the Boltzmann equation highlight the importance of the reliability of public information in the formation of bubbles and crashes. The use of Bollinger bands in the simulations shows how herding may lead to strong trends with low volatility of the asset prices, but eventually also to abrupt corrections.

Item Type:	Article
Schools and Departments:	School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Mathematics
Research Centres and Groups:	Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing Research Group
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics
Depositing User:	Richard Chambers
Date Deposited:	23 Jun 2016 12:09
Last Modified:	02 Nov 2017 02:00
URI:	http://srodev.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/61690

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