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Compact pairwise models for epidemics with multiple infectious stages on degree heterogeneous and clustered networks
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 02:39 authored by Neil Sherborne, Konstantin BlyussKonstantin Blyuss, Istvan KissThis paper presents a compact pairwise model that describes the spread of multi-stage epidemics on networks. The multi-stage model corresponds to a gamma-distributed infectious period which interpolates between the classical Markovian models with exponentially distributed infectious period and epidemics with a constant infectious period. We show how the compact approach leads to a system of equations whose size is independent of the range of node degrees, thus significantly reducing the complexity of the model. Network clustering is incorporated into the model to provide a more accurate representation of realistic contact networks, and the accuracy of proposed closures is analysed for different levels of clustering and number of infection stages. Our results support recent findings that standard closure techniques are likely to perform better when the infectious period is constant.
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Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Accepted version
Journal
Journal of Theoretical BiologyISSN
0022-5193Publisher
ElsevierExternal DOI
Volume
407Page range
387-400Department affiliated with
- Mathematics Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2016-08-30First Open Access (FOA) Date
2017-07-15First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2016-08-27Usage metrics
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