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Modelling Regional Imbalances.pdf (1.12 MB)

Modelling regional imbalances in English plebeian migration to late eighteenth-century London

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journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 07:28 authored by Adam Crymble, Adam Dennett, Tim Hitchcock
Using a substantial set of vagrancy removal records for Middlesex (1777–86) giving details of the place of origin of some 11,500 individuals, and analysing these records using a five-variable gravity model of migration, this article addresses a simple question: from which parts of England did London draw its lower-class migrants in the late eighteenth century? It concludes, first, that industrializing areas of the north emerged as a competitor for potential migrants—contributing relatively fewer migrants than predicted by the model. Rising wage rates in these areas appear to explain this phenomenon. Second, it argues that migration from urban centres in the west midlands and parts of the West Country, including Bristol, Birmingham, and Worcester, was substantially higher than predicted, and that this is largely explained by falling wage rates and the evolution of an increasingly efficient travel network. Third, for the counties within about 130 kilometres of the capital, this article suggests that migration followed the pattern described in the current literature, with London drawing large numbers of local women in particular. It also argues that these short-distance migrants came from a uniquely wide number of parishes, suggesting a direct rural-to-urban path.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Accepted version

Journal

Economic History Review

ISSN

0013-0117

Publisher

Wiley

Issue

3

Volume

71

Page range

747-771

Department affiliated with

  • History Publications

Research groups affiliated with

  • Sussex Humanities Lab Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2017-07-27

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2019-07-28

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2017-07-27

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