University of Sussex
Browse
__smbhome.uscs.susx.ac.uk_ellenaj_Desktop_SRO_Dienes et al Bayes and SIPS.pdf (194.28 kB)

Using Bayes Factors to evaluate evidence for no effect: examples from the SIPS project

Download (194.28 kB)
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 07:38 authored by Zoltan DienesZoltan Dienes, Simon Coulton, Nick Heather
Aims: To illustrate how Bayes Factors are important for determining the effectiveness of interventions. Method: We consider a case where inappropriate conclusions were publicly drawn based on significance testing, namely the SIPS Project (Screening and Intervention Programme for Sensible drinking), a pragmatic, cluster-randomized controlled trial in each of two healthcare settings and in the criminal justice system. We showhow Bayes Factors can disambiguate the non-significant findings from the SIPS Project and thus determine whether the findings represent evidence of absence or absence of evidence. We show how to model the sort of effects that could be expected, and how to check the robustness of the Bayes Factors. Results: The findings from the three SIPS trials taken individually are largely uninformative but, when data from these trials are combined, there is moderate evidence for a null hypothesis (H0) and thus for a lack of effect of brief intervention compared with simple clinical feedback and an alcohol information leaflet (B = 0.24, p = 0.43). Conclusion: Scientists who find non-significant results should suspend judgment – unless they calculate a Bayes Factor to indicate either that there is evidence for a null hypothesis (H0) over a (welljustified) alternative hypothesis (H1), or else that more data are needed.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Accepted version

Journal

Addiction

ISSN

0965-2140

Publisher

Wiley

Issue

2

Volume

113

Page range

240-246

Department affiliated with

  • Psychology Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2017-08-17

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2018-08-13

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2017-08-17

Usage metrics

    University of Sussex (Publications)

    Categories

    No categories selected

    Exports

    RefWorks
    BibTeX
    Ref. manager
    Endnote
    DataCite
    NLM
    DC