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Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 08:22 authored by Kebede Kassaye, Jorge Cano, Emanuele Giorgi, David M Pigott, Nick Golding, Rachel L Pullan, Abdisalan M Noor, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Aaron OsgoodZimmerman, Fikre Enquselassie, Asrat Hailu, Christopher J L Murray, Melanie NewportMelanie Newport, Simon J Brooker, Simon I Hay, Gail DaveyGail Davey
Background: In 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the number of people with podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia. Methods: We used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 villages in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above), by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015. Results: Podoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults) were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara) contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%), while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent. Discussion: The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is our collective responsibility to scale-up interventions rapidly.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Wellcome Open Research

ISSN

2398-502X

Publisher

F1000Research

Issue

78

Volume

2

Page range

1-17

Department affiliated with

  • BSMS Publications

Research groups affiliated with

  • Wellcome Trust Brighton and Sussex Centre for Global Health Research Publications

Notes

The most recent version can be accessed at http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.12483.2

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2017-11-22

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2017-11-22

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2017-11-22

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