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Do energy scenarios pay sufficient attention to the environment?

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posted on 2023-06-09, 12:47 authored by Tara Hooper, Melanie C Austena, Nicola Beaumonta, Philip Heptonstall, Robert A Holland, Ioanna Ketsopouloub, Gail Taylor, Jim Watson, Mark Winskel
Scenario development is widely used to support the formation of energy policy, but many energy scenarios consider environmental interactions only in terms of climate change. We suggest that efforts to develop more holistic energy pathways, going beyond post hoc analysis of environmental and social implications, can usefully draw on environmental scenarios. A detailed content analysis of UK energy and environmental scenarios was therefore undertaken, with energy scenarios selected on the basis that they were recent, had a direct link to energy policy, and covered a range of scenario types. The energy scenarios rarely considered societal drivers beyond decarbonisation and focused on quantifiable parameters such as GDP, while the environmental scenarios provided a richer narrative on human behaviour and social change. As socio-economic issues remain fundamental to the success of energy policies, this is a key area which should be better addressed within energy scenarios. The environmental impacts of energy scenarios were rarely considered, but could have a significant bearing on the likelihood of pathway outcomes being realised. Fuller evaluation of the environmental interactions of energy systems is therefore required. Although the analysis focuses on the UK, some international scenarios show similar limitations, suggesting that the conclusions are more widely applicable.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Accepted version

Journal

Energy Policy

ISSN

0301-4215

Publisher

Elsevier

Volume

115

Page range

397-408

Department affiliated with

  • SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2018-04-13

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2020-01-28

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2018-04-13

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