Energy security, employment and the policy-industry interlock: explaining the role of multi-scalar socio-spatial embeddedness in industry destabilization

Existing literature on industry destabilization has relatively neglected the embeddedness of industries to their regional and national contexts. This might result in overestimating the potential for industry destabilization in specific localities. Combining the Dialectic Issue LifeCycle (DILC) model and the geography of transitions literature this article analyses the developments in the Estonian oil shale energy industry between 1995-2016. We show that the ties between the industry and its local context serve as an important stabilizing mechanism offsetting the destabilizing pressures as conceptualized by the DILC model. The cancelling out of two mechanisms on a local level leads to a misalignment of scales where the continued presence of global pressure of climate change is not matched by local dynamics. Hence in contrast to what the DILC model implies, there is no straightforward transmission of international pressures on local industries: instead this process is mediated through and likely heavily influenced by national and regional considerations. The findings imply that for industry destabilization and energy transitions to occur, not only the regime but also its connections to the local context need to be destabilized and transformed.