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Temperature shocks, growth and poverty thresholds: evidence from rural Tanzania

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 14:23 authored by Marco Letta, Pierluigi Montalbano, Richard TolRichard Tol
Using the LSMS-ISA Tanzania National Panel Survey by the World Bank, we study the relationship between rural household consumption growth and temperature shocks over the period 2008 – 2013. Temperature shocks have a negative and significant impact on household growth only if their initial consumption lies below a critical threshold. As such, temperature shocks slow income convergence among households. Agricultural yields and labour productivity are the main transmission channels. These findings support the Schelling Conjecture: economic development would allow poor farming households to cope with climate change, and closing the yield gap and modernizing agriculture is crucial for adaptation to the negative impacts of global warming.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Submitted version

Journal

World Development

ISSN

0305-750X

Publisher

Elsevier

Volume

112

Page range

13-32

Department affiliated with

  • Economics Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2018-08-07

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