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Official forecasts and management of oil windfalls

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 12:52 authored by Torfinn Harding, Frederick van der Ploeg
Official forecasts for oil revenues and the burden of pensioners are used to estimate forward-looking fiscal policy rules for Norway and compared with permanent-income and bird-in-hand rules. The results suggest that fiscal reactions have been partial forward-looking with respect to the rising pension bill, but backward-looking with respect to oil and gas revenues. Solvency of the government finances might be an issue with the fiscal rules estimated from historical data. Simulation suggests that declining oil and gas revenue and the costs of a rapidly graying population will substantially deteriorate the net government asset position by 2060 unless fiscal policy becomes more prudent or current pension and fiscal reforms are successful.

History

Publication status

  • Published

Journal

International Tax and Public Finance

ISSN

1573-6970

Publisher

Springer Verlag

Issue

5

Volume

20

Page range

827-866

Department affiliated with

  • Economics Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2012-10-29

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