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Official forecasts and management of oil windfalls
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posted on 2023-06-08, 12:52 authored by Torfinn Harding, Frederick van der PloegOfficial forecasts for oil revenues and the burden of pensioners are used to estimate forward-looking fiscal policy rules for Norway and compared with permanent-income and bird-in-hand rules. The results suggest that fiscal reactions have been partial forward-looking with respect to the rising pension bill, but backward-looking with respect to oil and gas revenues. Solvency of the government finances might be an issue with the fiscal rules estimated from historical data. Simulation suggests that declining oil and gas revenue and the costs of a rapidly graying population will substantially deteriorate the net government asset position by 2060 unless fiscal policy becomes more prudent or current pension and fiscal reforms are successful.
History
Publication status
- Published
Journal
International Tax and Public FinanceISSN
1573-6970Publisher
Springer VerlagExternal DOI
Issue
5Volume
20Page range
827-866Department affiliated with
- Economics Publications
Full text available
- No
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2012-10-29Usage metrics
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